| TBIX MVP Odds |
Posted By: Matt
11/13/08 at 01:40 PM | Usually this message board is reserved for trash talk and extreme hyperbole. In this post I'm going to try and be as objective as possible as I go over my odds for the favorites to take home the 2008 MVP Award. I'll post my list and my reasoning behind it and if you disagree feel free to post why.
Of the 10 MVP awards handed out (Turkey Bowls I & II had co-MVPs) there have been 5 receivers, 3 quarterbacks and 2 lineman. Based on this small sample size there is a 50-50 shot that the MVP will come from the crop of receivers, a 30% chance it will be a QB and a 20% chance it could be a lineman. These breakdowns were taken into consideration when forming the list. Also, while some people might perform better than others we are ranking odds based on how valuable an individuals performance is to their team. Without further ado...
| Derek Detweiler | 3/1 | | Chris Crooks | 7/2 | | Tuna Bucella | 5/1 | | Mike Trill | 7/1 | | Tim Dougherty | 8/1 | | Matt Marcelli | 10/1 | | Paul Middleton | 10/1 | | Kevin Rayer | 12/1 | | Mark Marcelli | 25/2 | | Tom Orio | 18/1 | | Bill Pohlig | 20/1 | | Keith Cottom | 22/1 | | Tony Laughlin | 22/1 | | Rich DiNofia | 25/1 | | Jon Hart | 25/1 | | Ian Hart | 30/1 | | Sean Kelly | 35/1 | | Joe Doubet | 40/1 |
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Posted By: Promoter Don King
11/13/08 at 04:05 PM |  |
Posted By: Bill
11/13/08 at 08:36 PM | Weird how not only crooks is ahead of rich and me, but we both have more career tds than him. but also orio is in front of us, and he has never even finished a turkey bowl healthy. |
Posted By: Josh Capuwano
11/13/08 at 08:41 PM | Any chance I can play this year fellas? Im sure I can pause my world of war craft game for a few hours.
Also, Tim Doc if you read this I was wondering if I could get a pair of your boxers after of heavy drinking and hanging out with your girlfriend. |
Posted By: Crooks
11/14/08 at 04:59 AM | Well played post Bill, unfortunately I had nothing to do with these rankings so I really can't argue with you, but, still very well played. |
Posted By: [No Username]
11/14/08 at 08:25 AM | it's not a list of who is the best player from first to last, it's a list of who's best performance would effect the outcome of the game the most. For instance, Tom is ahead of Tony and Cottom because if Tom plays lights out and blocks those two, which nobody expects him to do, he could win the MVP. Tony and Cottom on the other hand, fall below Tom because everyone expects them to own Tom, so if they do, that's not really MVP worthy. Now the list should make more sense to everyone. |
Posted By: Don King
11/14/08 at 09:00 AM |  |
Posted By: Bill
11/14/08 at 10:53 AM | who posted as me, little bitch |
Posted By: Bill
11/14/08 at 10:56 AM | you actually posted an intelligent statement though, you should have posted something dumb. |
Posted By: Mark
11/14/08 at 11:14 AM | yo matt these odds are trash, just telling you. You were no comp sci major in college with a math minor cause the arithmetic you used was some grade school shit. First off when doing odds for an event, the sum of all such odds should come out to equal 1 when using decimals or 100%. When I added all these "odds" up I got 155.64%. Also, you are doing such great work, that when I decided to see what are the chances a member of Linebacker U wins MVP.. I get 86.37% and because the MVP usually comes from the winning team, we win , suck on that losers
So just saying thanks for being crappy at math and for the endorsement of my team in 13 days.. |
Posted By: Orio
11/14/08 at 11:17 AM | This message board is becoming nothing but a platform for cowards to voice their opinions. If you are gonna be a man and say that I stink, at least attach your fucking name. Am I that intimidating that you have to hide your identity?
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Posted By: Matt
11/14/08 at 12:47 PM | Tom, I would use a lot of words to describe you; tubby, robust, buxom, bossomy, but intimidating is not one of them. Speaking of cowards you have your best player, and #1 overall pick refusing to post on the message boards and openly stating that your team is going to lose the game. Then one of your other teammates calling out Crooks, saying he would gladly match up with him; then not addressing the topic ever since the teams were drafted and said match up became a reality. So when it comes to cowards, based on the teammates you are surrounded by, you are obviously an expert.
And Mark, my good man, don't go confusing the mental midgets that you have on your team by talking odds/percentages/probabilities. First a little lesson on "Futures" odds (basically something like the MVP odds that I posted). When you say somebody is X/1 to win something you are basically giving a percentage that said person will accomplish the feat. So if I were to say Tuna is 9/1 to understand this explanation, it would mean he has a 10% chance of understanding.
You reach this number by taking the number on the right (in this case 1) adding it to the left number (9, getting 10) and then dividing the right number by the sum (so 1 divided by 10 getting .1 or 10%). Now Mark's initial assessment is true. When doing a probability of a complete set, the percentages should add up to 1 or 100%. But in a case where it is strictly betting odds, this is not always necessary. Take a look at refuted gambling website Bodog's NBA Championship Odds in their futures section. If you take the time to do the calculations I previously explained, and add up all the percentages, you will get 1.54 or 154%, which is essentially impossible. So like I said, in smaller cases or for the sake of strict probabilities, a 100% sum is necessary. But in a strictly gambling sense, these odds are perfectly acceptable. Thank you Mark for giving me the opportunity to explain this.
As far as your assessment of your teams chances to win the MVP, I will also explain. Based on the rosters, and last year's results I'd say Thug U is a favorite going into the game. Therefore, it will take a Herculean effort from someone on your team to pull out a W. Hence, your team has a lot more people with chances of winning MVP. Like you said, MVP most often comes from the winning team; so if you do win it will be because one of your 9 players had a pretty good day. As for Thug U on the other hand, if we win as predicted, it will most likely mean we got solid efforts from our QB and top 2 or 3 receivers, which is why they are the only ones with fairly low odds. Our surplus of linemen means that one would have to do something pretty special to separate himself, which is why all of their percentages are pretty low. I hope my explanation is sufficient. Feel free to post back any questions. Two weeks til the annihilation, I hope you guys are enjoying playing internet tough guys in the mean time. |
Posted By: Bill
11/14/08 at 01:47 PM | I cant speak for Derek I dont know what his deal is whether he think says we're going to lose or not is on him. Maybe you guys are in his head, maybe not. Speaking for myself, lets be realistic after the teams were picked the likelyhood of my matching up with crooks isnt very good. I was actually covering Derek pretty well in practice and i'd say they're about the same speed (doing that for 4 hours is a different story). So their is no point on talking shit about something that either position or my team wont let happen. After openly mocking tim at the draft before I actually thought about it, I love our team. Lineman shmimelan I think we have the bodies to compensate. So keep running ur mouths b/c the last time we (old school) did that and came in thinking we were the shit we got our asses handed to us by new school. MY BOLD PREDICTION: Good guys - 8
Bad guys - 6....MVP - Ian Hart |
Posted By: Matt
11/14/08 at 02:02 PM | FYI, Derek has openly (many times) stated that he thinks his team will lose.
Deep down, after watch the debacle last year, you know how important linemen are. Tim will have no time in the pocket. Last year at least Middleton could scramble to buy some time, Tim will have no such luck. And as far as "having the bodies to compensate"; just because you're pushing 200 and Tom tips the scales at 230 does not make you guys competent lineman.
Also, the last time my team (Old School) was running its mouth we got our asses handed to us? I'm assuming you mean Turkey Bowl IV (which the final score was 10-9, and we had the game won if Doc would just hold onto the fucking ball); I can think of two times since then when I have ran my mouth just as much and felt just as confident: Turkey Bowl V (an 8-3 victory for my squad) and Turkey Bowl XIII (a 12-4 victory for my team). |
Posted By: Bill
11/14/08 at 02:12 PM | Thats on Derek if he thinks we're going to lose. I know i know your the thoroughbred on the field we get it, but i would consider tim doc a pretty competent lineman.
BOLD PREDICTION: Good guys - 8
Bad guys - 6....MVP - Ian Hart |
Posted By: Matt
11/14/08 at 02:25 PM | I agree that your team would be much better if Tim switched to line and Middleton moved to QB; but knowing Tim Doc as well as I do and knowing how stubborn he is I don't see him doing that unless things get out of hand, and at that point it might be too late.
I'm not sure what the line "I know i know your the thoroughbred on the field we get it" means, but I take it to mean that I overvalue, or think to highly of myself. But the proof is clear as day here, here and here. I produce. I get in the end zone. And when you get down to it, that's all that matters. |
Posted By: crooks
11/14/08 at 02:29 PM | well, being that we hold derek in such high regard, if bill can cover derek then he can cover me. mind as well give it a shot |
Posted By: Bill
11/14/08 at 02:41 PM | I use that term pretty loosely crooks, put it this way I was doing better than I expected. As for matt, the proof is in the pudding bud. I agree with Tuna's assessment, You know what your gonna get out of you. You get the ball thrown your way and you score. But for you to call out other people as incompetent linemen and then state that you would "speed rush the shit out of" tuna is ballsey. |
Posted By: Orio
11/14/08 at 02:56 PM | the conversations have grown boring..... lets get this damn game on already |
Posted By: Mark
11/14/08 at 10:57 PM | we have the best quarterback, and best football player on our team, we will win. can't wait to destroy your team on thanksgiving because you guys talk so much shit, |
Posted By: Crooks
11/15/08 at 08:59 AM | "Derek is going to kill whoever is guarding him." - Mark
"We have the best quarterback, and the best football player." - Mark
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Posted By: Obama!!!!!
11/16/08 at 12:10 AM | LEAVES.........obama 4 life |
Posted By: Mark
11/16/08 at 03:06 AM | hypocrite, tim doc is the best quarterback on the field come thanksgiving. Whoever disagrees with that sucks |
Posted By: Obama
11/16/08 at 03:24 AM | Obama disagrees and Obama has leaves running through his/my viens!!!!
OBAMA '09-'16 |